Published work · 12 publications
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Energy & macro intelligencePublished: 2026-09-07
Domestic Refining in Ghana: Likely Effects on the Cedi and Inflation
What would refining crude oil at home actually do for the cedi and for inflation? The realistic foreign-exchange gain is the refining margin retained onshore — a median of about $12.6 per barrel over 26 years of matched Brent and product prices — not the gross refined-import bill, because crude feedstock stays a dollar commodity. And under Ghana's import-parity pricing regime, pump prices fall only if the pricing formula passes local savings through. A channel-by-channel quantification from Ghana's own pricing, trade, and inflation data.
- Authors
- Kanari Intelligence
- Type
- Energy & macro intelligence
Sub-national intelligencePublished: 2026-06-15
Kenya's County Economic Vitality: Ranking the 47 Counties and the Geography of Concentration
Kenya's county economy is decisively concentrated: Nairobi produced KSh 998 billion in gross county product in 2017 — 108 times the smallest county. This report ranks all 47 counties by output and maps why activity clusters.
- Authors
- Kanari Intelligence
- Type
- Sub-national intelligence
Sub-national intelligencePublished: 2026-06-11
Tied to the Tap: How Nigerian States Depend on Federal Transfers
Across six states with reconcilable budget data, internally generated revenue funds anywhere from 51% of revenue (Anambra) down to barely 2% (Borno). Same federal lifeline, radically different self-reliance — and the divide tracks economic geography.
- Authors
- Kanari Intelligence
- Type
- Sub-national intelligence
Monetary policyPublished: 2026-05-06
Central Bank Policy Transmission: How Rate Decisions Reach the Real Economy Across Four African Markets
Twenty-five years of CPI and interest rate data reveal a stark divergence in monetary policy effectiveness: South Africa operates near-textbook inflation targeting while Ghana and Nigeria face severe transmission breakdowns driven by fiscal dominance and currency instability.
- Authors
- Kanari Intelligence
- Type
- Monetary policy
Capital marketsPublished: 2026-07-05
Ghana Stock Exchange Blue Chips in 2026: Returns, Valuation, and the Banking-Sector Signal for a New Investor
The 2026 GSE rally is real and financial-led — seven of the top-ten blue-chip performers are banks or insurers — but the market is not pricing bank profitability consistently. GCB Bank earns a 33% return on equity yet trades at just 4.6x earnings and 1.5x book, while ADB earns 15% ROE at 21.6x/3.5x. A return-and-fundamentals valuation of the top performers, with the ROE-vs-P/B map at its core.
- Authors
- Kanari Intelligence
- Type
- Capital markets
Commodity intelligencePublished: 2026-06-28
Global Maize Shocks, Exchange Rates, and Domestic Consumer Prices in Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa
A four-country test of whether global maize price shocks pass through to local consumer prices. The world maize benchmark transmits only weakly; the exchange rate is the dominant corridor, and it is clearest in Ghana's food CPI. Nigeria shows no robust corridor, Kenya is weak, and South Africa's overlap is too short to estimate.
- Authors
- Kanari Intelligence
- Type
- Commodity intelligence
Capital marketsPublished: 2026-07-04
Ghana Capital Markets in 2026: What the Equity Rally, the Rate Collapse, and the Yield Curve Mean for a Fintech Investor
Ghana's 2026 capital markets are being reshaped by a fast disinflation and easing cycle: the GSE Composite Index rallied ~72% between December 2025 and April 2026 as the policy rate fell from 28% to 14% and the 91-day Treasury discount rate collapsed to 4.83%. The sovereign curve is high-yielding but administered rather than smoothly market-priced. The durable opportunity is market infrastructure and savings mobilization, not broad-market beta.
- Authors
- Kanari Intelligence
- Type
- Capital markets
Fintech intelligencePublished: 2026-07-04
Ghana's Mobile-Money Economy in a Tight Macro Environment: What the Last Two Years Mean for Fintech Expansion in 2026
How Ghana's mobile-money market scaled through a hard macro period — and what it means for a fintech expanding in 2026. Monthly transaction value rose 47.3% to GHS 493.2 billion while active accounts grew just 10.6%, so the market is deepening (more value per user), not merely widening. Regional food inflation runs from -7.2% to +24.4%, making geographic sequencing decisive.
- Authors
- Kanari Intelligence
- Type
- Fintech intelligence
Macro intelligencePublished: 2026-06-28
Ghana’s Business Environment After the 2022 Debt Crisis: Governance, Macroeconomic Stabilization, and Investor Outlook
An assessment of how far Ghana’s business environment has recovered since the 2022 debt crisis and IMF programme, drawing on monthly fiscal, debt, interest-rate, exchange-rate, and regional-inflation series. Stabilization has restored policy control and a firmer macro floor, but high financing costs, a persistent cedi-inflation loop, and uneven regional inflation keep Ghana in a credibility-dependent regime.
- Authors
- Kanari Intelligence
- Type
- Governance & risk
Regional intelligencePublished: 2026-06-28
Ghana's Consumer Market to 2030: Regional Demand Concentration and the National Age Structure
A projection of where Ghana's consumer demand will concentrate by 2030, using official Ghana Statistical Service regional population projections and World Bank dependency ratios. Demand is moderately concentrated — Greater Accra and Ashanti alone hold 35.1% of the population — atop a youth-heavy national age structure that keeps schooling, housing, and family health at the centre of the market.
- Authors
- Kanari Intelligence
- Type
- Regional intelligence
Sector intelligencePublished: 2026-06-28
Ranking Ghana's Major Economic Sectors by Investment Attractiveness: Cost-Pressure Resilience, Growth Stability, and Typical Growth
A ranking of Ghana's economic sectors on what can be measured cleanly — resilience to producer-cost pressure and the stability of growth — with typical (median) growth as a directional overlay. Information and communication carries the lightest cost burden and steadiest positive growth; mining is the heaviest-cost cyclical play; manufacturing pairs weak growth with a heavy cost base.
- Authors
- Kanari Intelligence
- Type
- Sector intelligence
Regional intelligencePublished: 2026-06-04
Where in Ghana Should a Consumer-Facing Business Launch? A Regional Opportunity Scorecard
A 16-region scorecard ranking Ghana's administrative regions by market demand, purchasing power, and cost pressure. Greater Accra is the strongest first-entry market, Ashanti the strongest scale region, and Central the leading third-tier opportunity — using sub-national population projections and regional CPI/inflation by spending category that sits beneath the national averages most tools report.
- Authors
- Kanari Intelligence
- Type
- Regional intelligence