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Sovereign, Macro & FX
Understand the economic outlook. Anticipate risk. Stress-test the consequences.
An integrated intelligence platform for sovereign risk, macroeconomic forecasting, currency markets and financial stress testing across Africa.
Examine the forces shaping economic and financial stability, from inflation, monetary policy and exchange rates to sovereign vulnerabilities, credit conditions and external shocks.
Go beyond conventional forecasts. Compare evidence-based quarterly projections with institutional outlooks, construct your own economic scenario narratives, and evaluate how adverse conditions could unfold across an economy over the next three years.
From macroeconomic scenarios to bank financial outcomes: Where supported, translate economic shocks into projected lending, deposits, interest income, credit losses, profitability and capital resilience.
Capabilities
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Quarterly outlooks and institutional comparisons
Sovereign & FX Risk
Currency, monetary and external vulnerabilities
Scenario Stress Testing
Custom narratives and adverse macroeconomic paths
Bank Financial Impact
Lending, earnings, credit losses and capital
Describe the scenario
Choose a country. Run a reviewed scenario, or describe your own.
See how the outlook changes
Example
Cedi debt distress (2022-type)
Global conditions: Dollar and US rates surge 2022-23, as it happened
What changes
| Measure | Baseline | Adverse | Severely adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak CPI inflation, y/y | 7.5 % | 26.5 % | 42.3 % |
| Largest FX depreciation, y/y | 6.1 % | 51.2 % | 96.9 % |
| Largest policy-rate move from today | -1.7 pp | 10.5 pp | 19.3 pp |
Median path over the 12 quarters ahead.
The paths
The stressed path with its range, against the baseline.
FX depreciation
Policy rate
Gross reserves growth
91-day bill rate
A scenario, not a forecast and not a probability. Bands show uncertainty around this scenario's conditions; they are not the probability of the scenario.
Against past crises
| Measure | This scenario, against the baseline | Past crisis | Move in that crisis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak CPI inflation, y/y | +34.9 % | Ghana 2022–23 cedi collapse and debt distress | +40.7 % |
| Largest FX depreciation, y/y | +90.8 % | Ghana 2022–23 cedi collapse and debt distress | +90.7 % |
| Largest policy-rate move from today | +21.0 pp | Ghana 2022–23 cedi collapse and debt distress | +16.5 pp |
About these numbers
- The policy rate follows each draw's estimated rule; there is no monetary event.
- Event effects are added to the baseline path in model units; the starting quarter (2026-Q3) never moves.
- The adverse tier applies one intensity to the severe event sizes, calibrated on the primary defining measure; secondary measures are reported.
- The currency or capital flight (external / risk-premium shock) event was calibrated on this measure: Largest FX depreciation, y/y (median-path basis); its size is capped at 3.0 standard deviations per quarter.
- The historical move is applied as an increment on today's baseline: the target is the baseline's own peak plus the episode's change, not the level the episode recorded. Read the currency level index beside the year-on-year peak, so a base effect cannot mislead.
- Every displayed value is arithmetic per cent: y/y growth and FX depreciation are converted from the engine's 100 x log change by 100 x (exp(x/100) - 1); a peak-to-trough fall in real credit is converted by 100 x (1 - exp(-x/100)). Rates are in per cent per annum and unchanged; changes in rates are in percentage points (pp).
Bank impact
The same scenario on a bank's balance sheet: lending, funding, earnings and capital, quarter by quarter. Shown to each institution for its own bank.
- Net interest income
- Loan-loss charge
- Profit before tax
- Bond revaluation
- Capital headroom
The outlook, with evidence
Where each economy stands this quarter, the 12 quarters ahead, the published forecasts beside ours, and how earlier forecasts compared with what happened.
From a Kanari report
Central Bank Policy Transmission: How Rate Decisions Reach the Real Economy Across Four African Markets
Key findings
- Ghana's CPI reached 749 (2010=100) by 2024 -- prices 7.5x their 2010 level -- while South Africa's stood at 203 (2x), revealing a 3.7x gap in cumulative inflation outcomes
- South Africa maintained consistently positive real interest rates averaging 4.3% over 25 years, while Nigeria's real rate collapsed to -25.8% in 2019